The results of the September 24 federal elections in Germany sent a wave of shock across Europe. The partners of the Grand Coalition, the right-wing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Angela Merkel and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) suffered losses and gained fewer votes.
Overall, the election results show that Germany cannot escape the processes that have affected the rest of Europe. There is an increasing polarisation and political fragmentation. There has also been a melting away of the traditional support for the two major traditional political blocs – the CDU/CSU and the SDP.
In the good old days of the old federal republic, these blocs would score 80 percent to 90 percent of the votes cast between them. But this figure has been reduced to an overall share of just over 53 percent and has led to the emergence of the anti-immigration, Islamophobic and extreme right-wing party, the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD).
The Left Party (Die Linke) and the Greens made modest gains in the elections. Both parties have failed to put forward a clear, anti-capitalist, radical left-wing and pro-working class and youth programme to attract a wider segment of workers and youth. The Left Party could have pulled the brakes on the AfD’s march on the basis of a radical programme.
The extreme right-wing AfD emerges as the true winner of this election. The AfD is the first extreme right-wing racist party elected to the German parliament since World War II. While the AfD’s entry into parliament was expected, the size of its vote shocked many despite its recent recovery in the opinion polls. It jumped in as the third largest party with nearly six million votes – 12.6 percent of the total number of votes.
The surge in the AfD’s support – that has increased from 811,000 votes in 2013 – is a sign of the unrest and dissatisfaction that has developed among various sections across the country despite the recent economic growth. The major AfD strongholds lie in the east where deindustrialisation – which has taken place since the dismantling of the planned economy in the former East Germany – has left behind a large rust belt and demoralised the local population.
The ruling CDU/CSU lost 8.5 percent of the votes and fell to 33 percent of the combined votes. This is the lowest share of the votes for the CDU/CSU since 1949. The Social Democrats lost 5.2 percent to end up with 20.5 percent. This is not only the lowest vote since Second World War but is comparable only with the worst results of 1890 and 1932. The extreme right-wing AfD and the pro-business and free market economy Free Democratic Party (FDP) are the real winners of this election as both increased their votes by 7.9 percent and six percent, respectively.
The outcome of this election has undoubtedly weakened the political position of Chancellor Merkel. The SDP has already announced its plan to sit in the opposition and the AfD is not in the mood to join the coalition government. Merkel left with Greens, the Free Democrats and its Bavarian sister CSU to form the coalition government.
Chancellor Merkel, who has been in power for 12 years and is likely to hang on to another four-year term, had hoped that she and her party alliance of the CDU and the Bavarian CSU would easily win another victory around the 40-percent mark. The ruling class would have preferred a coalition of the traditional bourgeois parties – the CDU/CSU and the FDP. But in the end – due to the decline in support for the CDU/CSU – this coalition failed to win a majority.
This election failed to produce the results that the German bourgeoisie had hoped for. The German capitalist class wanted a stable, strong, pro-business and more right-wing coalition government to carry out further cuts on wages, pensions, the welfare system and the liberalisation of the economy. The weak, chaotic and unstable coalition government will not be able to serve this purpose.
Both the Greens and the Free Democrats will push for concessions from Merkel. Both parties represent different programmes and ideologies. Both parties dislike each other and will fight to gain more influence in the coalition to satisfy their voters. It will not be an easy task to put together such contrasting coalitions to work smoothly.
The SDP suffered a humiliating defeat. The traditional social democracy is in serious trouble. Jeremy Corbyn is the only exception in this Europe-wide phenomenon. Corbyn revived the Labour Party on a radical left-wing programme in opposition to the austerity, neoliberalism and free market onslaught. The social democratic parties across Europe moved to the right and gradually embraced the free market economy and neoliberal economic policies to dismantle the welfare state. The SDP did the same and launched the most vicious attacks on the wages, working conditions, unemployment benefits and welfare programmes between 1998 and 2005.
The result of Schroder’s ‘reforms’ was – and is – a massive casualisation of labour in Germany and attacks on the unemployed. Over a quarter of the workforce is now in some form of casual employment. Many of them receive wages that place them just about on or below the poverty line. A majority of them need more than one job to survive or have to rely on additional social security to pay their rent. This is, by the way, the main explanation for the low unemployment rate and the export boom in the German economy. The poor population and low-paid workers are increasingly dependent on the free lunches offered by welfare organisations and volunteers across Germany. These are the conditions of the low-paid workers of the strongest and richest economy in Europe.
The SDP’s leadership continued with the same right-wing policies and failed to offer a real alternative to the working class and the poor. The SDP is heading towards the direction of other social democratic parties in Greece, France, the Netherlands and elsewhere who have been badly affected by their policies of carrying out counter-reforms.
Article First appeared in thenews.com.pk on 29-September-2017
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/233261-The-rise-of-the-right