Will opposition be able to bring down the government through street power?

The political juggling between the government and opposition parties on Panama Papers came to an end. Now opposition parties are threatening to launch anti government protest movement to bring down the government and paving way for the fresh elections. The government is determined not to bow down before the opposition. The opposition also took hard stance and not ready to concede to the government. The situation is moving towards open confrontation between the two. If the deadlock continue and judicial commission not formed than we are heading towards a showdown between the government and opposition.

The parliamentary committee was formed to write down the Terms of Reference (TORs)  to send to the Supreme Court to for the formation of a judicial commission to probe the Panama Leaks. The parliamentary committee failed to agree on common TORs to start the process of judicial inquiry into the allegations of having illegal offshore companies. Several meetings of the committee were held but failed to break the deadlock between the two sides.

The government is alleging that the opposition just wanted to have accountability of ruling family. The opposition on the other hand is saying that the government is not serious to form the judicial commission. The opposition is alleging that government is frightened from an independent probe and accountability. Panama papers mentioned the name of two sons of prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for having offshore companies in Panama. The opposition is demanding the accountability of Nawaz Sharif and his family but the  government wants to widen the scope of the judicial inquiry.

Can opposition toppled the government through street agitation?

PTI is very keen to launch the anti government protest movement after Ramadan. PTI is not in the mood to give much time to the government to continue playing hide and seek with the opposition on Panama issue. But this time around, PTI wants to take other opposition parties on board before the agitation. The PPP is bit reluctant in launching such protest movement. The position of the MQM is not clear at the moment. One thing is clear that PTI is not going to be alone in this protest movement. PTI is not ready to repeat the mistake which it made during the months long sit-in in Islamabad, when it took solo flight. Now PTI want to keep at least PPP and JI on board. The situation will become clear after the Ramadan when full political activity will restore.

Now the question is whether the opposition parties can bring down the government through the street agitation. The answer is no. The opposition can not bring down the government just with their street power. It seems that on the question of corruption and  Panama Leakes the opposition will not be able to mobilise a mass movement which is necessary to bring down the government.

The opposition is not raising the real issues faced by the working masses. Both PTI and PPP lack  the sort of street power and organisation needed to face off the government in countries like Pakistan. The present PPP is not even the shadow of the PPP which faced off the brutal dictatorship of General Zia. PTI members and workers are not politically trained enough to led such protest movement.

The role of the military is decisive

The history of pakistani politics and protest movements tell us that without the backing of the military establishment, it will not be possible to topple the government. Opposition movements only succeeded when the military give support to such movements. Since 2008, the military restrained itself from direct intervention. The military continue to play the role of the most dominant section of the ruling class and most organised and disciplined state institution.

Since, the military went after the Pakistani Taliban and other militant Islamic groups in the country, the military enjoys massive support and respect. Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is the most respected and popular figure in the country. But it will be a mistake if one consider this support to took power and overthrow the elected government. The army enjoying wide spread respect and support because there is strong perception that army is not indulge in politics. Once army decided to openly intervene in politics and started to involve heavily in politics than this perception will change.

There is still no indication that the army wants to send this government home. Even Though, some in the media and few politicians are looking towards the army to get rid of this government. They wish and desire that army should back the opposition parties against the government.

There are some differences and issues between the government and the military establishment. And there are tensions between the two on some issues but situation has not reached to the stage where military will go against the government and destabilize it.  But at the moment it seems less likely that military will provide the much needed backing and support to the opposition. The situation can change if the PML-N government commit a suicidal mistake or protest movement becomes very violent and out of control.

Tainted faces

If the face of the government is tainted in the panama leakes than the situation is not very favourable for opposition either. Imran Khan, the leader of PTI took very hard stance against offshore companies, but since his own offshore company been exposed, he has lost high moral ground. The names of other PTI leaders also been exposed for having offshore companies and foreign investments. The PPP leadership is already tainted with the corruption allegations.

It is possible that these opposition parties might be able to mobilise their own members and supporters but it will be hard for them to mobilise general masses. The numbers required to topple a sitting government will not be there for opposition parties. MQM is not seems interested to become part of this movement. The government will try to further divide the opposition and to stop PPP for going too far.

Mainstream parties and accountability

One thing is very clear that no mainstream political party whether part of the government or sitting on the opposition benches wants a real, independent and across the board accountability The reason is that all the main leadership of different political parties belongs to the same ruling class. They enrich themselves using one mean or the other while in the power.

There will be hardly any feudal or capitalist politician who has not used the state resources or took advantage of the public position to enrich itself. From taking bank loans on much lower interest rates to the write- off of these loans. From misuse of public funds to undue favours to attain contracts and quotas from the state. From taking bribes and kickbacks in mega projects to the undue favour in the privatisation of state assets. From tax evasion to money laundering, there is long list corruption, misuse of authority and other corrupt means to amass wealth by the ruling class.

They have used one mean or more to become super rich and billionaires. There are people from the middle class and upper layers of middle class in the leadership but their role is limited. The capitalist and feudal elite dominates the political scene in Pakistan. Their politics is not based on the ideas or program but they use their wealth to get positions in the parties. So each one of such leaders wanted accountability of others instead of going for across the board accountability. They know very well that there will be few among them who can face a real accountability. They are playing politics around the issue of accountability and Panama Papers.

Nexus of corrupt

How can the leadership of PML-N, PPP and PTI would like to end all those corrupt practices from the system. which help them to become enormously rich within a decade or two. The corruption and misuse of authority is not limited to the politicians and businessmen. whereas both the military and civilian bureaucracy also involved in it. The interesting fact is that everybody wants accountability of the politicians but hardly any body mention bureaucracy in this regard. The bureaucrats  are the real rulers of this country and they find it easy to team up with politicians to involve in corrupt practices.

One should be clear that neither every politician is corrupt nor the bureaucrat. There are individuals who are clean and never involved in corruption at any level. But corruption has become integral part of this corrupt and rotten system and state structure. Police, lower judiciary, revenue department and other state institutions are considered the most corrupt. The corruption was not as widespread till 1970s, as it is now. The corruption becomes part of the system and spread like infection during the military rule of General Zia-ul-haq. He gave free hand to everybody who supported his rule.

When military took power in 1977 and toppled Bhutto’s elected government, there was no serious corruption charges came up. The corruption in the political system was introduced and promoted by military dictatorship of General Zia-ul-Haq.  Since than it never looked back and spread to almost all segments of the society and state apparatus.

The working masses are the real victims of this rotten and corrupt system. Some in the ruling class and its allies have become billionaires at the expense of the millions. This system protects the millionaires not the millions.